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Election Betting Odds

By Maxim Lott and John Stossel

Why This Beats Polls | Odds from Betfair, Smarkets, PredictIt, Polymarket, Kalshi | How People Bet

Hover over candidate pics to see market breakdown. Hover over underlined titles for amount bet.

Chance of...

DEM Nomination 2028Democratic nominee for the Presidential election to be held on Nov 5 2028

$1,307,315,565 bet so far
Newsom details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎19.8-19.9%$1,241,791,414
Kalshi 🇺🇸19.0-20.0%$62,465,856
PredictIt 🇺🇸21.0-22.0%$2,976,163
Betfair 🇬🇧22.2-24.4%$75,460
Smarkets 🇬🇧22.2-24.4%$7,836

21.5%

0.6%
Cortez details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎14.4-14.5%$1,241,791,414
Kalshi 🇺🇸14.0-16.0%$62,465,856
PredictIt 🇺🇸13.0-14.0%$2,976,163
Betfair 🇬🇧13.5-16.1%$75,460
Smarkets 🇬🇧13.5-16.1%$7,836

14.5%

0.1%
Harris details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎6.6-6.7%$1,241,791,414
Kalshi 🇺🇸8.2-8.3%$62,465,856
PredictIt 🇺🇸11.0-12.0%$2,976,163
Betfair 🇬🇧5.3-5.9%$75,460
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.3-5.9%$7,836

7.5%

0.2%
Buttigieg details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎4.8-4.9%$1,241,791,414
Kalshi 🇺🇸5.1-5.3%$62,465,856
PredictIt 🇺🇸5.0-6.0%$2,976,163
Betfair 🇬🇧5.6-7.7%$75,460
Smarkets 🇬🇧5.4-7.7%$7,836

5.7%

0.1%
Shapiro details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎5.1-5.2%$1,241,791,414
Kalshi 🇺🇸4.7-4.8%$62,465,856
PredictIt 🇺🇸6.0-7.0%$2,976,163
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-4.8%$75,460
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-4.8%$7,836

3.3%

-0.8%
Beshear details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎2.1-2.2%$1,241,791,414
Kalshi 🇺🇸3.7-3.8%$62,465,856
PredictIt 🇺🇸4.0-5.0%$2,976,163
Betfair 🇬🇧2.2-3.4%$75,460
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.6-3.5%$7,836

3.3%

-0.0%
Obama details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.0-1.1%$1,241,791,414
Kalshi 🇺🇸1.1-1.5%$62,465,856
Betfair 🇬🇧1.3-9.1%$75,460
Smarkets 🇬🇧1.2-3.3%$7,836

2.4%

-0.1%
Moore details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎1.1-1.2%$1,241,791,414
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.4-2.6%$62,465,856
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$2,976,163
Betfair 🇬🇧2.1-2.6%$75,460
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.1-2.6%$7,836

2.2%

+0.0%
Pritzker details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.9-1.0%$1,241,791,414
Kalshi 🇺🇸2.6-2.7%$62,465,856
PredictIt 🇺🇸3.0-4.0%$2,976,163
Betfair 🇬🇧0.2-2.1%$75,460
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-2.1%$7,836

1.9%

+0.0%
Whitmer details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.4-0.5%$1,241,791,414
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.5-0.7%$62,465,856
PredictIt 🇺🇸2.0-3.0%$2,976,163
Betfair 🇬🇧1.7-3.1%$75,460
Smarkets 🇬🇧2.3-3.3%$7,836

1.7%

0.2%
Cuban details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.6-0.7%$1,241,791,414
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.7-0.9%$62,465,856

0.7%

-0.1%
Cooper details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.7-0.8%$1,241,791,414
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.2-0.3%$62,465,856

0.5%

-0.0%
Warnock details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.5-0.6%$1,241,791,414
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.4-0.5%$62,465,856

0.5%

+0.0%
Walz details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.2-0.3%$1,241,791,414
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.1-0.2%$62,465,856
Betfair 🇬🇧0.1-25.0%$75,460
Smarkets 🇬🇧0.1-1.5%$7,836

0.3%

-0.1%
Fetterman details
Markets     Range (Bid-Ask)     Total $ Bet
Polymarket 🌎0.3-0.4%$1,241,791,414
Kalshi 🇺🇸0.1-0.2%$62,465,856

0.3%

-0.1%

33.6%

Static chart capture

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